stefdasca's blog

By stefdasca, history, 4 months ago, In English

Have you ever wanted to know how will your CF rating look like in the future, without having to be stressed about the potential shortcomings which may come in future contests?

Have you ever wanted to be able to say that you will get the rating of your dreams soon?

If the answer for both of these questions is Yes, then you once again came to the right place.

Over the last three years since I posted the first such blog , everyone wanted to learn how will their CF rating look like in the future and I got such questions pretty much everywhere I could possibly get, including but not limited to:

  • replies to comments I made here
  • DMs here, on Discord and even on other social media platforms
  • replies to messages on Discord
  • even when I met people during onsite contests

As a result, exactly three years after the first iteration of the blog, I decided to come back with a second edition of this blog, where I am using my now three more years of experience in predicting ratings and studying how people will evolve in the future, solely by looking at their charts.

Since images are often worth 1000 words, you can notice the high rate of success I had when I first did this and the relentlessness with which people asked for a part 2 can tell you everything you need to know about how popular this idea is (someone even made a tool for something like this as a result of this blog). Even before writing this blog, I had people asking me about this so you can tell how popular this is.

If you want to know how will your(or your friends') CF rating will look like, post the handle in the comments or an image of the rating graph and I will come with a reply as soon as possible.

However, this system only works for users with at least 15 contests taken and whose ratings are below 2600(from 2600 on, large swings happen and I can't really consider them as relevant in those persons' future skills)

Even if my predictions won't please you, you can look at my channel and my website for ways to make even the most negative predictions fail. After all, they only indicate how well you do based on the charts, without reflecting any kind of practice strategy or anything.

Good luck and I wish you nice holidays and a wonderful 2024!

UPD: You can predict here whether I will be able to make it to grandmaster during this year. You can assume that I will try to practice as much as my time allows it to get this done.

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4 months ago, # |
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    potat Your sudden peak near 1900 can be traced with the other peaks as it looks like a overshoot so I expect a bit of a pullback in the near future around 1750-1800

    Spoiler

    AmogusRank1 This rating chart seems to have been bouncing around between 1600 and 1750 but judging by the positive momentum, I believe 1800+ will come before any return towards 1700

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Looks like you are on a steady rise but at the current rate, you'll reach 800 in about 10 contests so the growth won't be too fast IMO.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Steady rise so far however it looks like you're struggling a bit around 1200. I expect you to bounce back and forth between 1150 and 1250 in the near future.

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
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      And then...?

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        4 months ago, # ^ |
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        I only predict near future, not what your rating will be in 2030

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    A clear pattern seems to have emerged from your rating chart as you alternate periods of stagnation with sudden rises. Judging from the previous times this happened, I think you will hit around 2100-2150 and stay around that area for a while.

    Spoiler
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    You just reached a new color, congrats! However, looking at how things went historically for you, it looks like you'll hang around there for a while, but I can also see a rise to 1300 but not much more.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Not enough recent data to make a clear prediction, sorry

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Looks like after a steady rise which sent you from newbie to purple, you'll hang around low purple for the coming rounds, maybe even occasionally fall to blue only to bounce back.

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      2 months ago, # ^ |
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      That didn't age well XD

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        2 months ago, # ^ |
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        Hi bro, can you share some tips ? How do you practice ? Also do you practice solely on cf or other platforms as well ?

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    You got there a perfect trend line but right now you are at the upper end of your channel so expect a pullback before any subsequent peak and push to 1600+

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
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      Thanks a lot for it. I'll try to make it 1600+ peak.

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trraian

Thanks a lot :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    After a long and consistent range from 1100 to 1400, I think you'll finally make the next step and push towards 1500-1600. However, seems like you might fall down after a peak of 1500+

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
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      Ok, thanks! I'll try to prove you wrong with the part of falling down :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I expect them to come back to at least 1500+, however I don't see any subsequent peaks anytime soon

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Not enough recent data but if the contests were closely grouped, you could go to master

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I believe your peak will fizzle out and you'll go down to 1200 area soon

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      6 weeks ago, # ^ |
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      Moved to 1400: NVM any practical suggestions as of now for growth?

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Please, predict my rating rolandpetrean

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I expect you to touch blue once more before you hit orange once and for all

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I believe you'll stay around this place, between 1700 and 1900 but without touching purple for now IMO.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    After a year of blue performances, you suddenly got to master and I don't think this will stick. You might even come back to 1900 area before any future growth.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Seems like you're slowly rising up the rating ladder, so I think you'll hang around 1900 to 2000 area for a while.

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PrakharJain please! Thanks!

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Not enough recent data unfortunately but I think you'd probably fall down short term if you were to take contests unless there's information I'm not aware of

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Raul_A idk, i predict an specialist, almost expert.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll stay between 1350 and 1450, maybe 1500 for now

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you can go towards 1400 but hang around there until another surge

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NeverCompromise

Can I ever escape cyan???

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Not enough recent contests but even so, it looks like you're bouncing back and forth between 1500 and I can see you going towards 1700

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll come back to 1550-1600 before any subsequent rise

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    After 1 year of bouncing back and forth between 1900 and 2100, I expect this to continue for now.

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profile

Thank you!

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Seems like your most recent peak touched a trendline with the other 2 recent peaks, I think you'll pull back to around 1000, 1050 before another peak

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll go down to 1100, even 1050 before any growth.

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I know I have been out for too long. Is there any hope.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    You haven't taken any recent contests but I think you'll first go back to purple or even low purple

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll first go to 1200 area then back towards 1400

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll once again get to see the 1700s before you go up once again

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Mysterious_X

Thanks in advance :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll hit blue first but barely (smth like 1620, 1630 at most). You might come down below 1500 after that

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jayantjha1109

Please do mine. Thanks!

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owais78

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I will predict a steady rise to 1200 then it is to be seen

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Seems like 1200 is your right place for now, you'll stay around here

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Can I ever be blue? SNX03

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Unfortunately I think you'll see gray first before blue, as I expect a short term downfall

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Mine plsssssss

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    You'll stay between 1150 and 1250, maybe touch 1300 once

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Turaka Hey bro mine plz I am beginner

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My handle Utsavshekhar

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Not too much data to work with but I think you'll see 2100 first

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think that peak is overshooting the normal rating range and I expect 2400 first before any subsequent rise

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      3 months ago, # ^ |
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      Seems like my prediction is aging well so far TimDee

      I think he'll start climbing soon however

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    You'll first fall down to 1300s as I believe your recent peak is an exception from your average contests

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Unfortunately I expect this rangebound rating to continue for now

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll go first towards 1950, 2000 before any bigger move happens

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Unfortunately looks like this dip will continue towards 850 or even 800

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Looks like you will hang around 900 to 1000 rating for now

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I see a lot of stagnation ahead, mostly around 1700

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Nurss

thanks!

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Seems like you've been struggling around 1900 but I expect you to finally break it once and for all and go towards 2000

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Not much recent data but I guess you'll go to purple again before you move back up

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    At the moment you're at the bottom of your range so I expect a steady rise towards 1500

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Bhediya Sir

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oToToT thanks and happy new year.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    2 year long W pattern, I think you'll go to 2300 or even overshoot towards 2350-2400.

    Happy new year

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    That looks like a bull flag to me so I think you'll reach 1300-1400 soon

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    If you gitgud you will reach 0 rating

    Until then you are bad.

    Gitgud, gRati

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/akshat_017

Any suggestions are welcome too :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll stay around 1600 for now.

    I'd suggest more practice or harder practice for you.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Steady rise so I think you'll keep rising but not as fast as you currently do

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4 months ago, # |
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Does it work for stock market too ?

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I have been more successful at that than I was 3 years ago to say the least so in a way, yeah

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Can you read my future please :pleading_face:

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    A clear application of the overshoot pattern but I predict you will keep the CM for now

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    We see here a potential double top so I think chances are 2250 will be seen before 2400 again

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    You broke out of the cyan range but I expect the same behavior to happen here in blue, so a 1600-1750 range for now

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    It's safe to say this range will keep being respected based on your long term history

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you will go towards 1000 and even 1100.

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
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      I mean that's sad, no chance of me to be a pupil before feb?

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Hz_ If start doing contest again, when will my rating surpass 1900?

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    At your historical progression rate, in 2-3 years probably.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    This is going to be a key moment, you either get to 1900+ fast or stay stuck for a long while between 1700 and 1800

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    I think you'll go down to 1000 rating and then back up towards 1200

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      3 months ago, # ^ |
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      You thought wrong!! ;smiling-face

      Ofc, i was being sarcastic as no one can really predict everything right.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    After 5 tries I think you'll finally break out towards 1250 and later 1300

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    The range is tighter so I expect a big move soon, and from the looks of it, it's more likely for it to be an upward move.

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Please predict for me Misa-Misa

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NULLgorithm

Thank You :) Happy New Year :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Judging by your pattern of rating growth so far, I expect a bounce towards 1400 soon

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    Here's some slow growth, I expect this to continue towards 1150 or 1200 in short term

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Redpo please, I know I haven't participated in 15 rated contests yet but would still like to hear some of your insights, thanks :)

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    The range is tighter so I expect a big move soon, most likely for it to be an upward move.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I think you'll hang here around low master, though there's not too much div1 data to say with certainty

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
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    I don't predict myself lol, I am planning to return to contests one day

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll stay here around 1200-1300 for now

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    There's a short term downfall which looks a bit concerning, so you might go a bit more down before you bounce back up

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

check mine also

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    You just broke out from your range, so I expect you to push towards 1200

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you will range around here (low 1400s high 1300s area) for now

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it

Can you predict my rating :)

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    You just got blue with a one off performance, however I think you can sustain yourself at that level and push higher but not before a pullback

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
        Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

      Yeah thanks, I hope so too. I have done lots of training since my last contest.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it +1 Vote: I do not like it

    Not touching that one haha, I think his results speak for themselves

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +22 Vote: I do not like it

CF limits how much someone can comment (15 comments per 10 mins) so I won't be able to reply you all right away but I'll try my best to reach to as many people as possible in the next hours or so

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    for me it's 1 comment per 10 minute , why this injustice with low rated people

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll go back down towards 1200 before more upside.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you can go upwards towards 1700 short term.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/ParthSahu

I didn't give enough contests but if you can still predict, Thanks anyway.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    The double top around 2540 looks a bit scary but I also see higher lows so I expect him to stay around this range for now

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    Higher low and slightly higher highs, I expect this trend to continue for now

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 3   Vote: I like it +10 Vote: I do not like it

L_Wave ( UPD: modified the time )

Can I go red before 2025 New Year? It seems that 2093 to 2400 is very difficult.

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it +10 Vote: I do not like it

    The momentum is on your side, I think this is achievable judging from your graph, keep it going

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think your slow rating growth will continue for now

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it

Can you predict my rating?

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll stay in this range (1650-1750) for now

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

okay.

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 3   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

gagan_gandi

Thanks :)

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

Hi

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I expect you to bounce back soon towards CM

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
        Vote: I like it +8 Vote: I do not like it

      I also expect me to bounce back soon towards CM (but I won't)

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Kyr4

Hopefully i can be CM next year

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it +3 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you will keep rising, however you need a bit more momentum to reach CM next year

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I expect the rise in rating to continue towards 1200

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    Almost a perfect triple top, see you down around 1700, even 1650

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    You should bounce from here soon

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      4 months ago, # ^ |
      Rev. 3   Vote: I like it -8 Vote: I do not like it

      I want to be one of the top competitive programmers. I don't know if my love for CP is real, but the desire is real 100%. But I must get a job for money after 6 — 7 months (or after graduation). I don't know, where the journey leads to me. Because I am not sure if I can maintain my reality and my dream parallelly. I just want to be the best, that's all I know.

      Can you tell me something about my dream and desire? If not, no problem. I just want to tell these to somebody. I have no one to tell these or understand me.

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        4 months ago, # ^ |
          Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

        You should believe in yourself, because you can achieve both goals! It is indeed hard balancing these out, but you can practice and get better. It depends on how much time you're willing to spend doing CP problems. If you want to be more focused on doing stuff that can benefit you at your job interview, try doing LeetCode and combine it with CF, AtCoder and whatever other sites you want to visit. You could probably (although that might not be the case, I can't know your life circumstances) dedicate two hours after work grinding CF problems. Remember, one step is better than no step whatsoever! There are people over here on this platform that are older than both of us combined and still participate in contests and whatnot. I would prioritize getting a job first, so focus on the necessary skills for your desired job(s), grind LeetCode 100 (CF is a bit too obscure for usual interviews). That will also help you gain a stronger foundation on the data structures found in competitive programming, so it's a win-win. And before anything else, believe in yourself, you can do it, you just have to put in the work (and don't burn out in the process, your health is more important than your job or your CF rating!).

        I believe in you! Godspeed in your overall programming journey, not just competitive :)

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it +25 Vote: I do not like it

omg do me (uhh not like that but uh uh yes)

Beacon

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it +2 Vote: I do not like it

    Nice bounce from that sudden dip, I expect the momentum to continue and go towards 2150-2200

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I believe your slow growth will continue, but it will keep being slow

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

Matrosk1n

Thanks!!

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll bounce up soon, maybe even towards 1400

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

Please check mine, thank you in advance:3

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 3   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

Can you explain your method for prediction? Is it based on technical analysis?

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    Pretty much TA + a bit of experience from what I see from people when competing. I've been active in this in some way or another for 10 years or so, and as a result I gained tons of experience.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 3   Vote: I like it +2 Vote: I do not like it

Probably not enough data but worth a try xD

WAPretest2

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

estoy-re-sebado

Please ignore round 907. I had to leave 15 minutes into the contest to deal with an emergency.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it +9 Vote: I do not like it

I will do my best to reply to all comments written at or before today at 23:59 UTC+2. Take your chance to find your future rating before it's too late.

After that I will reply until the new year's day, depending on availability.

UPD: I won't reply to accounts with less than 15 contests.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it +10 Vote: I do not like it

    I expect a dip to come soon judging from your rise, but the long term prospects are positive

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    Back to your usual 1100 rating, I expect you to stay around this range for now.

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/21Cash

also maybe checkout my noob leetcode profile please https://leetcode.com/21Cash

I wanna get good for Coding interviews

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll dip for now but you got a nice trend there

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4 months ago, # |
Rev. 2   Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you can have 1-2 more good contests then settle around 1250-1300

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I expect a rangebound rating between 700 and 900

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it
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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll go towards 1350, maybe even 1400 soon

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/619

I feel like I've been improving but recent contests have just been unlucky, Or I might be just coping I'll have to find out

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think you'll soon start growing your rating again

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4 months ago, # |
  Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

I'm currently embracing the plateau (most embarassing part is that I lost expert due to a div3), please predict me lol

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    4 months ago, # ^ |
      Vote: I like it 0 Vote: I do not like it

    I think that plateau is here to stay unfortunately