stefdasca's blog

By stefdasca, history, 2 years ago, In English

Have you ever wanted to know how will your CF rating look like in the future, without having to be stressed about the potential shortcomings which may come in future contests?

Have you ever wanted to be able to say that you will get the rating of your dreams soon?

If the answer for both of these questions is Yes, then you once again came to the right place.

Over the last three years since I posted the first such blog , everyone wanted to learn how will their CF rating look like in the future and I got such questions pretty much everywhere I could possibly get, including but not limited to:

  • replies to comments I made here
  • DMs here, on Discord and even on other social media platforms
  • replies to messages on Discord
  • even when I met people during onsite contests

As a result, exactly three years after the first iteration of the blog, I decided to come back with a second edition of this blog, where I am using my now three more years of experience in predicting ratings and studying how people will evolve in the future, solely by looking at their charts.

Since images are often worth 1000 words, you can notice the high rate of success I had when I first did this and the relentlessness with which people asked for a part 2 can tell you everything you need to know about how popular this idea is (someone even made a tool for something like this as a result of this blog). Even before writing this blog, I had people asking me about this so you can tell how popular this is.

If you want to know how will your(or your friends') CF rating will look like, post the handle in the comments or an image of the rating graph and I will come with a reply as soon as possible.

However, this system only works for users with at least 15 contests taken and whose ratings are below 2600(from 2600 on, large swings happen and I can't really consider them as relevant in those persons' future skills)

Even if my predictions won't please you, you can look at my channel and my website for ways to make even the most negative predictions fail. After all, they only indicate how well you do based on the charts, without reflecting any kind of practice strategy or anything.

Good luck and I wish you nice holidays and a wonderful 2024!

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    potat Your sudden peak near 1900 can be traced with the other peaks as it looks like a overshoot so I expect a bit of a pullback in the near future around 1750-1800

    Spoiler

    AmogusRank1 This rating chart seems to have been bouncing around between 1600 and 1750 but judging by the positive momentum, I believe 1800+ will come before any return towards 1700

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    Looks like you are on a steady rise but at the current rate, you'll reach 800 in about 10 contests so the growth won't be too fast IMO.

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    A clear pattern seems to have emerged from your rating chart as you alternate periods of stagnation with sudden rises. Judging from the previous times this happened, I think you will hit around 2100-2150 and stay around that area for a while.

    Spoiler
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    You just reached a new color, congrats! However, looking at how things went historically for you, it looks like you'll hang around there for a while, but I can also see a rise to 1300 but not much more.

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trraian

Thanks a lot :)

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    After a long and consistent range from 1100 to 1400, I think you'll finally make the next step and push towards 1500-1600. However, seems like you might fall down after a peak of 1500+

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    I expect them to come back to at least 1500+, however I don't see any subsequent peaks anytime soon

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Please, predict my rating rolandpetrean

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    I believe you'll stay around this place, between 1700 and 1900 but without touching purple for now IMO.

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    After a year of blue performances, you suddenly got to master and I don't think this will stick. You might even come back to 1900 area before any future growth.

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    Seems like you're slowly rising up the rating ladder, so I think you'll hang around 1900 to 2000 area for a while.

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PrakharJain please! Thanks!

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    Not enough recent data unfortunately but I think you'd probably fall down short term if you were to take contests unless there's information I'm not aware of

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Raul_A idk, i predict an specialist, almost expert.

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NeverCompromise

Can I ever escape cyan???

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    Not enough recent contests but even so, it looks like you're bouncing back and forth between 1500 and I can see you going towards 1700

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    After 1 year of bouncing back and forth between 1900 and 2100, I expect this to continue for now.

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profile

Thank you!

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    Seems like your most recent peak touched a trendline with the other 2 recent peaks, I think you'll pull back to around 1000, 1050 before another peak

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I know I have been out for too long. Is there any hope.

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    You haven't taken any recent contests but I think you'll first go back to purple or even low purple

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Mysterious_X

Thanks in advance :)

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    I think you'll hit blue first but barely (smth like 1620, 1630 at most). You might come down below 1500 after that

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jayantjha1109

Please do mine. Thanks!

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owais78

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Can I ever be blue? SNX03

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Mine plsssssss

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Turaka Hey bro mine plz I am beginner

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My handle Utsavshekhar

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    You'll first fall down to 1300s as I believe your recent peak is an exception from your average contests

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Nurss

thanks!

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    Seems like you've been struggling around 1900 but I expect you to finally break it once and for all and go towards 2000

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oToToT thanks and happy new year.

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    2 year long W pattern, I think you'll go to 2300 or even overshoot towards 2350-2400.

    Happy new year

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/akshat_017

Any suggestions are welcome too :)

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Does it work for stock market too ?

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Can you read my future please :pleading_face:

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    You broke out of the cyan range but I expect the same behavior to happen here in blue, so a 1600-1750 range for now

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Hz_ If start doing contest again, when will my rating surpass 1900?

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    This is going to be a key moment, you either get to 1900+ fast or stay stuck for a long while between 1700 and 1800

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    The range is tighter so I expect a big move soon, and from the looks of it, it's more likely for it to be an upward move.

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Please predict for me Misa-Misa

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NULLgorithm

Thank You :) Happy New Year :)

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Redpo please, I know I haven't participated in 15 rated contests yet but would still like to hear some of your insights, thanks :)

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    I think you'll hang here around low master, though there's not too much div1 data to say with certainty

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    There's a short term downfall which looks a bit concerning, so you might go a bit more down before you bounce back up

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check mine also

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Can you predict my rating :)

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CF limits how much someone can comment (15 comments per 10 mins) so I won't be able to reply you all right away but I'll try my best to reach to as many people as possible in the next hours or so

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/ParthSahu

I didn't give enough contests but if you can still predict, Thanks anyway.

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    The double top around 2540 looks a bit scary but I also see higher lows so I expect him to stay around this range for now

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L_Wave ( UPD: modified the time )

Can I go red before 2025 New Year? It seems that 2093 to 2400 is very difficult.

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    The momentum is on your side, I think this is achievable judging from your graph, keep it going

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Can you predict my rating?

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gagan_gandi

Thanks :)

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Hi

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Kyr4

Hopefully i can be CM next year

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omg do me (uhh not like that but uh uh yes)

Kita

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Matrosk1n

Thanks!!

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Please check mine, thank you in advance:3

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Can you explain your method for prediction? Is it based on technical analysis?

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    Pretty much TA + a bit of experience from what I see from people when competing. I've been active in this in some way or another for 10 years or so, and as a result I gained tons of experience.

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Probably not enough data but worth a try xD

WAPretest2

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estoy-re-sebado

Please ignore round 907. I had to leave 15 minutes into the contest to deal with an emergency.

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I will do my best to reply to all comments written at or before today at 23:59 UTC+2. Take your chance to find your future rating before it's too late.

After that I will reply until the new year's day, depending on availability.

UPD: I won't reply to accounts with less than 15 contests.

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/619

I feel like I've been improving but recent contests have just been unlucky, Or I might be just coping I'll have to find out

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I'm currently embracing the plateau (most embarassing part is that I lost expert due to a div3), please predict me lol

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Thanks! blitztage

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Hi, could you please predict mine too.

https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/aasimamisaa

Thanks in advance.

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mine thanks qwq

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Can you tell me about me? And I wish you a happy holiday! Thanks a lot!

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/51ngulvrity

how am I supposed to get better fast? there are so many chapters to cover and when I participate to contests I barely do something

thanks!!1!!!1!1!

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    I think you'll bounce back from there.

    Speaking of your other question, I believe you should start with the easier concepts on CSES (math and sorting and searching) then practice tasks.

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    I think you'll hang around here (1700s) but you're at a key point, you can just as well go to 1900.

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RTE

Thanks in advance :p

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akcube Thanks :)

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/navneetk12

thanks!

Edit: never upsolved, so if that considered then?

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Abhi8803 thanks :)

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envariant, thanks!

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    :O welcome back from the first blog

    I think you're going to push towards 2200 soon, it will take a bit of time however

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hemanth6, thanks!

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Zixel, thanks.

Rating Graph
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Tet uwu

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My account: https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/NEERAJ2003 Thanks, in advance!!

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aash8a9

Can I get CM or Master by 2025? Happy New Year!

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<<<

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BoosterImpulse Thanks ! Any improvement suggestions are highly welcomed .

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RunAt

Hope its not newbie.

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/kavorka

What insights could you provide me based on my profile. Hoping to be CM and then Master in near future. Thanks.

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    Seems like both of your ratings will behave the same in the future, as you keep improving and reach 1200 eventually

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sanjay77 Thanks !!

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Please predict the future rating of my ICPC team:

jerefigo tarche uliseslp

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hydra_cody + Anything you want to suggest to improve?

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jtrh :O

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What do you think about me (hydroshiba)?

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Wow, I have to admit I didn't expect this blog to be this much popular compared to the first one, so in order to make the blog more interesting and my motivation to reply higher, please also upvote the original blog post, each new upvote (when I wrote this I had +52) means I will reply to 2 more comments. (the last blog only had 2x as many comments in 3 years).

I will reply to everyone who wrote before I wrote this message however.

If you didn't get a reply yet, it's because you either don't have enough contests, I did that account before or because you're spamming. Or I didn't reach you yet.

I also refrain from predicting when I think there's not enough data.

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/ojoao

will I be a pupil for ten more years, or will I finally reach newbie soon?

thanks :)

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Wolfester

Thank You!

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TiredRetiredThread

very curios to know the future! :)

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dattucode

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endCoding Thanks

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PsychoPinkQ. Thanks!

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Christopher_Rdz

Thank u <3

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leneza_41

Thanks in advance.

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ct17

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    You will be the most dangerous hacker and the redest codeforces user in the world and the master of the masters in competitive programming... in a parallel world. <3

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_irohasu_

Let me try for fun. thanks

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mine :)

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weirdflexbutok please, thanks!

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    stefdasca i got a notification that you reply to me

    but I am not able to see any reply :(

    Kindly Please review my Account :)

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      I think you will keep going up for now but you'll likely stay between 1300 and 1400

      There has been a brief incident which caused most of my comments from yesterday to be deleted, sorry about that.

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terracottalite, thanks for doing this!

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Been looking foward to this blog :p Ive been trying to give more contests: https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/ProGamer

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Amazing! :))) Please predict mine whenever you have time. My Handle: AlefHeKaaf

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Jasonwei08 pls and thanks

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With all respect, you will not tell me who I am, I said. "You will not tell me who I am".

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    Well I can't tell you who are you, but I can tell you that it will take you a while more before you will go 1200+

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And I profile

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Please predict my rating

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/_Untrackable_

notice the graph til 2 contest after reaching specialist . as after it i didnot solve a and b in contest . only tried d and sometime c.

also for pupil stats u can check this idea which i am commenting . after pupil i changed the id

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101rror

Thanks

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/bobbilyking

only 6 more months until i can't just NEET around :upside_down: predict good fortune for me mr. stefdasca

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el_programador please :)

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i keep practicing, tell me something good please about me :(

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fwacmer_aroyal
please,thanks

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A lucky streak or the road to CM? :) https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/tn757

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Thanks to everyone who decided to join this challenge and get a chance to know what their future is going to be like.

As promised earlier on, I will reply to every comment written before this one until new year and then any subsequent ones depending on my availability.

Once again happy holidays, have a great 2024 and for those of you where the fortune was not on your side, remember that you have your destiny in your hands.

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/heyyyankit

What would be my rating by April 2024

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/hxu10 I have been around 2000 for nearly two years

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Can you do me please? Thank you <3

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j

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/GTA

how long will it takes for me to reach master / candidate master ?

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RajaVamshiNath thanks :)

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Me please :) mahmoud13

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Handle: Zeardoe

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Please tell mine

SpryzenValtryek

Thanks in advance!!

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specialist??

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Can I ever reach master? though I just reached expert.

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What about me: HNA.Myuu

Thanks =)).

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ntmin midrangemaster

It is the same person so you can use any account for reference :3

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if you do it for gms, can you guess my future rating?

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mine pls

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.

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pls mine: AlefHeKaaf

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Got busy for a bit: https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/pCode14

My issue right now is that I have learnt a lot of super classic problems but I struggle with applying or just get stuck in the middle ground between easy to implement problems and the higher level problems where data structures and what not actually matter.

What would you recommend to improve actually applying past knowledge? Thanks

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ARMINIUS please thanks!

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haochenkang

Thanks!!

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SadraMzf

Thx! :D

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xyfern

Thank you!

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Ehsan

thankyou <3 :P

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What about me?

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    2 years ago, hide # ^ |
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    I remember that you said about 2500 or 2550 drop. But I believe that this time you're mistaken, and my median level won't drop below 2600 (although single points there are possible as outliers).

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hi, me please

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mee

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/NaOH_Frog

looks like a lottery but will hear your thoughts thanks

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plagues, pls

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Ruchit1

Thanks :)

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Am I go straight down to cyan? XP

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humblebose please predict and advise for the better as well!

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no need. Thanks.

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Can you check KOI? Thank you.

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Meguhine Thanks

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Mine :)

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.

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leessjn

Thanks

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am I reaching 2400 pls?

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Handle: uma15, thank you!

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ItsNotMeItsYou

Normally, I don't believe fortune tellers (you can say we are doing analysis and bla bla bla...) but I will be happy to prove your guess wrong.

Merry Christmas :D

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Mine

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larush

Also, I upvoted!

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/zeena.

i cant reach specialist or expert yet

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Welcome back!

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i doubt you have enough info since im not doing contests long enough, but still: https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/0x34c

Thanks in advance.

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stefdasca can still not reply to comments.

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Leonardo_Paes

I don't know why but it seems like I'll start 2024 cyan? Even though my goal was yellow :P

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okay, what do you expect my rating to be in 1-2 years?

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JagguBandar

Thanks :)

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vvent Thanks

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cgmoreda Thanks!

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Your text to link here... Are you still predicting.

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mine

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C0DET1GER. Thanks!

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giga-bit Thanks :)

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mine please Thanks for the great blog that i read it all

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Nilesh_ Thanks

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Auto comment: topic has been updated by stefdasca (previous revision, new revision, compare).

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felix95
Thanks in advance!

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eruditeO_o

Please

Thanks in advance!

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AkiLotus, hehe, but with a twist.

Since my last contest was years ago, there are two options for ya (or you can try both for fun):

  • Predict the supposed rating should I not retire from CP that day.
  • Predict the one if I decided to come back right now, assuming in all these gap years I only do minor CP stuff.
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    2 years ago, hide # ^ |
     
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    Hi! Nice to see you back and happy new year!

    • If you were to have your chart with active participation, I would suspect an initial dip to CM and then you'd hang around low master
    • If we assume you haven't really done much since retiring, I think you will go into the CM territory, maybe even touch blue on an off day but mostly stay around CM.
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      2 years ago, hide # ^ |
       
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      I see, pretty much converging to my true skill ceiling those days. Thank you, and happy new year as well!

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.

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@snakks

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codeforces.com/profile/djawadmain

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can you please predict my rating too?

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I know you said at least 15 contests but could you please somehow make 14 work? Thanks! B0KI_

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/ClHg2

Can you predict whether I will reach IGM?

Thanks!

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vector123

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is this still works??

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LordPranjay Thanks!

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Hey good day to you. Can you do mine? I'm hoping to reach 1500 before summer.

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Try mine :)

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Me please thanks

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BambooTree

Please review , Thanks in advance :)

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.

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I wonder how did you predict their ratings, did you just used a function to fit or analysis their upper bound?

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JahonaliX Thanks

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23 months ago, hide # |
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Profile: https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Sixpathsguy I stopped active practice around July 2021, but the experiment seems cool!

stefdasca

Thanks.

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blud

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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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Please please predict: https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/myvaluska :) Thanks a lot in advance!

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The blog came back in the recent action so I will make the disclaimer.

In the light of the most recent trends regarding cheating, people who have at least one skipped contest shouldn't expect replies.

If I get the time to reply to comments here again, I will only reply to people with clean record as far as cheating goes.

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Can i know my prediction ? BinaryBubble

I don't have any skipped submission or skipped contest, completely clean profile :3 stefdasca

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https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/yadavravishekhar589 please also tell me what should i do to perform better in contest. thank you:)

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I took a lot of breaks but here https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/i3mr125 thanks

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please guess my future

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    I totally got smacked in div1+2 contest. But still coming back for a fight. Dunno how my future might become

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Hello Sir stefdasca Orz,

Please review and predict my profile !

(part of ACD community)

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yo can you do me

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Thunder8971 thank you c:

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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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hi there again after 8 months

what do you think

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Please predict wangsiyuanZP, superyijin_txdy and me thank you :)

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    21 month(s) ago, hide # ^ |
     
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    "this system only works for users with at least 15 contests taken..."

    In my opinion, superyijin and superyijin_txdy will get 3000+, and you will get 3500, and I will get 1087 or even less

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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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Hi stefdasca. Can you check my profile — neg_infinity?

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Fireborn25[user:Fireborn25]

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Survivor_winner and wsyj_AK_IOI please!

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Could you please predict mine( _lcy_ ), thanks! ><

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21 month(s) ago, hide # |
 
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    17 months ago, hide # ^ |
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    nah tourist > 2600

    However, this system only works for users with at least 15 contests taken and whose ratings are below 2600(from 2600 on, large swings happen and I can't really consider them as relevant in those persons' future skills)

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include_c

thanks

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.

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kb2098

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kr_shivansh1908 , tell me how much i can make it in 1 yr with this consistency?

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a_y_u_s_h7

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hello. i have two accounts : one is this : https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/CurseBreaker_btw second : https://mirror.codeforces.com/profile/Mr.AmzC i just use the first account for the contests that i cant participate in time

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من أتى عرافًا فسأله عن شيء لم تقبل له صلاة أربعين ليلة

هذا هو نص الحديث

فاتقوا الله

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Can you predict my rating? ParsaSRK

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mine too please? Metall1cA