Looking at the top-10 users and Recent Actions bar right now, two things become apparent:
- Since LGMs cannot change their rank to a higher one, more people in, say, top-100 have changed their rank to a lower one than to a higher one.
- Codeforces-wide, more people have changed their rank to a higher one than a lower one.
So there has to be an exact cut-off point, above which the same number of people have changed their rank to either side. I decided to do some scraping to find out exactly where it is.
Lo and behold:
Of the top 15k users, about tenth changed their rank to a higher one, and the same number to a lower one.
Now, I'm no physicist, but I do know how to draw a line. I honestly have no explanation as to why the blue graph is so perfectly linear. If anyone can explain this kind of behavior, please leave a comment below. ;)
Now let's scale the x-axis by rating:
Looks like people who have almost reached a higher rank are less likely to change it. Also, I think that the orange curve becomes linear over time? I don't know. I'm certainly in no position to try and do some advanced statistics on this data, so I won't.
What I find curious is that Experts are almost evenly split into two groups. The difference almost doesn't change until around 1800 and then plummets.
The exact cut-off point in question, according to my calculations, is 1579. I really wanted to shout out a user with this rating, but there's quite a few, so congrats to all of you!
Tell you what, have some more graphs.
Keep in mind that I only fetched 40k users, so the histogram might look a little different in reality, but the trends are clear.
Cyan is easily the most popular before 2000 (looking at you, Um_nik), but then nutellas and grays skyrocket, and after 1500 LGMs take over. Purples and oranges are tied for third, but I hope you'll agree that they're the prettiest of all.
The code I used is available here.
Anyway, thanks for reading, and I wish you all the best for the New Year!
Upvoted
Too many words in blog but pictures are cool!