World Finals 2017 statistics and my prediction

Revision en3, by rng_58, 2017-05-23 07:59:20

1. Tsinghua (Win: 40%, Gold: 90%, Medal: 100% after some rounding)

  • CF max: 3441, 3203, 2967 (agg = 3516)
  • Open Cup: 1, 1, 11, 9 (median = 5)
  • China Final: 1
  • MIPT: 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 1, 4

2. Warsaw (Win: 15%, Gold: 75%, Medal: 95%)

  • CF max: 3122, 2962, 2826 (agg = 3237)
  • Open Cup: 2, 3 (median = 2.5)
  • Petrozavodsk: 4, 2, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, 2

3. SPb ITMO (Win: 15%, Gold: 50%, Medal: 90%)

  • CF max: 2880, 2870, 2860 (agg = 3104)
  • Open Cup: 7, 3, 2, 1, 13, 1, 2, 1, 3, 7, 13, 8, 8, 12, 3, 2, 1, 12 (median = 3)
  • Petrozavodsk: 4, 1, 3, 1, 6, 5, 3, 7, 5
  • MIPT: 6, 2, 3, 1, 5, 2, 1

4. SPb SU (Win: 10%, Gold: 40%, Medal: 85%)

  • CF max: 3170, 2951, 2936 (agg = 3281)
  • Open Cup: 9, 21, 18, 5, 3, 4, 9, 9, 6, 1, 2, 2, 7, 1, 4, 23, 20, 4 (median = 5.5)
  • Petrozavodsk: 7, 3, 6, 5, 8, 1, 4, 5, 1
  • MIPT: 2, 4, 2, 3, 1, 10, 8

5. Seoul (Win: 5%, Gold: 40%, Medal: 85%)

  • CF max: 3174, 2919, 2760 (agg = 3250)
  • Open Cup: 4, failed, 4 (median = 4)

6. MIPT (Win: 5%, Gold: 30%, Medal: 75%)

  • CF max: 2928, 2757, 2756 (agg = 3063)
  • Open Cup: 16, 29, 27, 28, 7, 24, 17, 15, 9, 15, 17, 3, 9, 4, 10 (median = 15)
  • Petrozavodsk: 1, 5, 5, 5, 1, 6, 6, 1
  • MIPT: 3, 6, 5, 4, 6, 3

7. MIT (Win: 5%, Gold: 30%, Medal: 75%)

  • CF max: 2900, 2637, 2540 (agg = 2981)
  • Open Cup: Equivalent to 2.5 in NAIPC

8. KTH (Gold: 10%, Medal: 60%)

  • CF max: 2761, 2637, 2273 (agg = 2870)
  • Open Cup: 2, 17, failed, 7 (median = 12)
  • MIPT: 5, 5, 16, 7, 7, 2

9. Waterloo (Gold: 10%, Medal: 60%)

  • CF max: 2925, 2908, 2703 (agg = 3100)
  • Open Cup: Equivalent to 12.5 in NAIPC

10. Fudan (Gold: 5%, Medal: 55%)

  • CF max: 2543, 2367, 2327 (agg = 2667)
  • Open Cup: 6, 13, 9, 6, 13, 18 (median = 11)
  • China Final: 5
  • MIPT: 12, 3, 7, 15, 13, 4, 5

11. New South Wales (Medal: 50%)

  • CF max: 3073, 2429, 2006 (agg = 3082)
  • Open Cup: 6, 8, 16 (median = 8)
  • MIPT: 14, 9, 10, 16, 2, 5, 7

12. Tokyo (Medal: 50%)

  • CF max: 2762, 2694, 2424 (agg = 2903)
  • Open Cup: 29, 5, 10, 12, 14, 29 (median = 13)
  • MIPT: 11, 10, 6, 8, 15, 6, 6

I won't be surprised if the following teams get a medal:

13. SJTU (Medal: 50%)

  • CF max: 2707, 2609, 2582 (agg = 2874)
  • Open Cup: 26, 3, 18, failed, 21, 12, 10, 20, 26, 14 (median = 19)
  • China Final: 2
  • MIPT: 8, 7, 4, 10, 3, 9, 10

14. NTU (Medal: 45%)

  • CF max: 2772, 2341, 2220 (agg = 2808)
  • Open Cup: 11, 15, 21, 10, 2 (median = 11)

15. Perm SU (Medal: 40%)

  • CF max: 3037, 2850, 2578 (agg = 3127)
  • Open Cup: 6, 18, failed, 3, failed, 9, 18, 7, 24, 15, 14, 16, 16, 7, 21, 16, 21, 17 (median = 16)
  • Petrozavodsk: 8, 12, 10, 14, 10, 10, 2, 6, 6
  • MIPT: 4, 8, 11, 5, 20, 7, 9

16. Peking (Medal: 40%)

  • CF max: 2920, 2566, 2338 (agg = 2965)
  • Open Cup: 21, 3 (median = 12)
  • China Final: 6

17. Helsinki (Medal: 35%)

  • CF max: 2721, 2280, 1516 (agg = 2745)
  • Open Cup: 15, failed, 9, failed, 16, 4, 17, 11, 30, 18, 2, failed, 8 (median = 16)
  • Petrozavodsk: 3, 26, 25, 11, 11, 7, 10, 2, 9
  • MIPT: 10, 16, 14, 6, 23, 17, 3

18. BSUIR (Medal: 30%)

  • CF max: 2825, 2625, 2466 (agg = 2943)
  • MIPT: 7, 13, 8, 11, 9, 13, 12

===

  • Expected win of top 7 = 0.95
  • Expected gold of top 10 = 3.8
  • Expected medal of top 18 = 11.2

And I guess Tokyo Institute of Technology will be around 25th, Keio will be around 40th.

Tags prediction

History

 
 
 
 
Revisions
 
 
  Rev. Lang. By When Δ Comment
en4 English rng_58 2017-05-23 13:28:03 467 Added Barcelona too
en3 English rng_58 2017-05-23 07:59:20 1197
en2 English rng_58 2017-05-21 13:40:34 541 Tiny change: 'nal: 3\n\n- Expe' -> 'nal: 3\n\n\n- Expe'
en1 English rng_58 2017-05-21 02:44:15 2593 Initial revision (published)